Off the wire

The early money

A prediction market puts a live price, somewhere between 0¢ and 100¢, on a yes-or-no question about Congress, like Will this bill pass? Congress eventually acts, on the record, with a date on it. This page lines those two public records up on one clock and measures a single thing: how far the price moved in the fourteen days before the dated official act.

That number only means something next to how much prices move anyway. The base-rate box below shows that normal drift, and every move on this page sits beside it. We track markets and dollars, not traders. A big early move is a question, not an answer. Both dates are public records you can check.

How to read this page three dates

This example is the top row of the ranking below.

The market: “Will Brett Matsumoto be confirmed as Commissioner of Labor Statistics before Aug 8, 2026?” Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange

2026-07-23. The market closed at 16¢, which reads as roughly 16-in-100 odds.
2026-08-06. It closed at 99¢.
2026-08-07. The dated official act on the record (confirmation).

The card reads: the price moved 83 points in the fourteen days ending the day before the act, which is bigger than 99% of ordinary two-week stretches (p99 = 45pp) by the base-rate box below.

A price can't say why it moved. A whip count, a floor schedule, a news story, and plain luck all look the same in a closing price. The card shows the two dates, the gap, three public timelines (daily prices, every dated action on the record, quarterly lobbying filings), and where each record came from. It does not give a verdict. See this card →

The base rate normal drift

Across 577 ordinary 14-day windows on the tracked markets, leaving out windows that end in a real act, the median move is 2 points. A move of 10 points or more happens in 19% of them, and 20 points or more in 9%. The 99th percentile is 45 points. We set no cutoff. No court has ruled on a case of trading a legislative market on inside information, so there is nothing to base one on.

Every scored join ranked by move, all shown

One row is one market paired with one dated official act. The same market can appear once per act, and its other windows sit under its best row, one click deep. move is how far the daily close moved in the 14 days ending the day before the act, in points (1¢ = 1 point). vs. ordinary drift compares that move with the base-rate box above.

marketact date relationmove (pp) vs. ordinary driftwindow volume card
Will Brett Matsumoto be confirmed as Commissioner of Labor Statistics before Aug 8, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-08-07 confirmation 83 bigger than 99% of ordinary two-week stretches (p99 = 45pp) 2,350 contracts two facts + the gap
Will any restriction on or defunding of the "Anti-Weaponization Fund" established pursuant to the settlement agreement in Trump v. Internal Revenue Service of May 18, 2026 be in the next reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-09 passage 72 bigger than 99% of ordinary two-week stretches (p99 = 45pp) 44,129 contracts two facts + the gap
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Will any restriction on or defunding of the "Anti-Weaponization Fund" established pursuant to the settlement agreement in Trump v. Internal Revenue Service of May 18, 2026 be in the next reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-09 passage 72 bigger than 99% of ordinary two-week stretches (p99 = 45pp) 44,129 contracts two facts + the gap
Will any restriction on or defunding of the "Anti-Weaponization Fund" established pursuant to the settlement agreement in Trump v. Internal Revenue Service of May 18, 2026 be in the next reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-09 passage 72 bigger than 99% of ordinary two-week stretches (p99 = 45pp) 44,129 contracts two facts + the gap
Will any restriction on or defunding of the "Anti-Weaponization Fund" established pursuant to the settlement agreement in Trump v. Internal Revenue Service of May 18, 2026 be in the next reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-09 passage 72 bigger than 99% of ordinary two-week stretches (p99 = 45pp) 44,129 contracts two facts + the gap
Will any restriction on or defunding of the "Anti-Weaponization Fund" established pursuant to the settlement agreement in Trump v. Internal Revenue Service of May 18, 2026 be in the next reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-09 passage 72 bigger than 99% of ordinary two-week stretches (p99 = 45pp) 44,129 contracts two facts + the gap
Will any restriction on or defunding of the "Anti-Weaponization Fund" established pursuant to the settlement agreement in Trump v. Internal Revenue Service of May 18, 2026 be in the next reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-09 passage 72 bigger than 99% of ordinary two-week stretches (p99 = 45pp) 44,129 contracts two facts + the gap
Will any restriction on or defunding of the "Anti-Weaponization Fund" established pursuant to the settlement agreement in Trump v. Internal Revenue Service of May 18, 2026 be in the next reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-09 passage 72 bigger than 99% of ordinary two-week stretches (p99 = 45pp) 44,129 contracts two facts + the gap
Will any restriction on or defunding of the "Anti-Weaponization Fund" established pursuant to the settlement agreement in Trump v. Internal Revenue Service of May 18, 2026 be in the next reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-09 passage 72 bigger than 99% of ordinary two-week stretches (p99 = 45pp) 44,129 contracts two facts + the gap
Will any restriction on or defunding of the "Anti-Weaponization Fund" established pursuant to the settlement agreement in Trump v. Internal Revenue Service of May 18, 2026 be in the next reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-09 passage 72 bigger than 99% of ordinary two-week stretches (p99 = 45pp) 44,129 contracts two facts + the gap
Will any restriction on or defunding of the "Anti-Weaponization Fund" established pursuant to the settlement agreement in Trump v. Internal Revenue Service of May 18, 2026 be in the next reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-09 passage 72 bigger than 99% of ordinary two-week stretches (p99 = 45pp) 44,129 contracts two facts + the gap
Will any restriction on or defunding of the "Anti-Weaponization Fund" established pursuant to the settlement agreement in Trump v. Internal Revenue Service of May 18, 2026 be in the next reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-09 passage 72 bigger than 99% of ordinary two-week stretches (p99 = 45pp) 44,129 contracts two facts + the gap
Will any restriction on or defunding of the "Anti-Weaponization Fund" established pursuant to the settlement agreement in Trump v. Internal Revenue Service of May 18, 2026 be in the next reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-09 passage 72 bigger than 99% of ordinary two-week stretches (p99 = 45pp) 44,129 contracts two facts + the gap
Will any restriction on or defunding of the "Anti-Weaponization Fund" established pursuant to the settlement agreement in Trump v. Internal Revenue Service of May 18, 2026 be in the next reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-09 passage 72 bigger than 99% of ordinary two-week stretches (p99 = 45pp) 44,129 contracts two facts + the gap
Will any restriction on or defunding of the "Anti-Weaponization Fund" established pursuant to the settlement agreement in Trump v. Internal Revenue Service of May 18, 2026 be in the next reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 34 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 33,365 contracts two facts + the gap
Will any restriction on or defunding of the "Anti-Weaponization Fund" established pursuant to the settlement agreement in Trump v. Internal Revenue Service of May 18, 2026 be in the next reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 34 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 33,365 contracts two facts + the gap
Will any restriction on or defunding of the "Anti-Weaponization Fund" established pursuant to the settlement agreement in Trump v. Internal Revenue Service of May 18, 2026 be in the next reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 34 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 33,365 contracts two facts + the gap
Will any restriction on or defunding of the "Anti-Weaponization Fund" established pursuant to the settlement agreement in Trump v. Internal Revenue Service of May 18, 2026 be in the next reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 34 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 33,365 contracts two facts + the gap
Will any restriction on or defunding of the "Anti-Weaponization Fund" established pursuant to the settlement agreement in Trump v. Internal Revenue Service of May 18, 2026 be in the next reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 34 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 33,365 contracts two facts + the gap
Will any restriction on or defunding of the "Anti-Weaponization Fund" established pursuant to the settlement agreement in Trump v. Internal Revenue Service of May 18, 2026 be in the next reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 34 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 33,365 contracts two facts + the gap
Will Thom Tillis vote for the next budget reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-04 passage 52 bigger than 99% of ordinary two-week stretches (p99 = 45pp) 6,612 contracts two facts + the gap
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Will Thom Tillis vote for the next budget reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-04 passage 52 bigger than 99% of ordinary two-week stretches (p99 = 45pp) 6,612 contracts two facts + the gap
Will Thom Tillis vote for the next budget reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-04 passage 52 bigger than 99% of ordinary two-week stretches (p99 = 45pp) 6,612 contracts two facts + the gap
Will Thom Tillis vote for the next budget reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-04 passage 52 bigger than 99% of ordinary two-week stretches (p99 = 45pp) 6,612 contracts two facts + the gap
Will Thom Tillis vote for the next budget reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 51 bigger than 99% of ordinary two-week stretches (p99 = 45pp) 6,010 contracts two facts + the gap
Will Thom Tillis vote for the next budget reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 51 bigger than 99% of ordinary two-week stretches (p99 = 45pp) 6,010 contracts two facts + the gap
Will Thom Tillis vote for the next budget reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 51 bigger than 99% of ordinary two-week stretches (p99 = 45pp) 6,010 contracts two facts + the gap
Will Thom Tillis vote for the next budget reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 51 bigger than 99% of ordinary two-week stretches (p99 = 45pp) 6,010 contracts two facts + the gap
Will Thom Tillis vote for the next budget reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 51 bigger than 99% of ordinary two-week stretches (p99 = 45pp) 6,010 contracts two facts + the gap
Will Thom Tillis vote for the next budget reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 51 bigger than 99% of ordinary two-week stretches (p99 = 45pp) 6,010 contracts two facts + the gap
Will Thom Tillis vote for the next budget reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-03 passage 14 above the median (2pp) 5,859 contracts two facts + the gap
Will Thom Tillis vote for the next budget reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-03 passage 14 above the median (2pp) 5,859 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the Senate vote on CLARITY Act? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-08-08 passage 38 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 961,098 contracts two facts + the gap
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Will the Senate vote on CLARITY Act? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-08-08 passage 38 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 961,098 contracts two facts + the gap
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Jun 6, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-03 passage 38 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 189,281 contracts two facts + the gap
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Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Jun 6, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-03 passage 38 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 189,281 contracts two facts + the gap
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Jun 6, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-04 passage 29 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 225,722 contracts two facts + the gap
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Jun 6, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-04 passage 29 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 225,722 contracts two facts + the gap
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Jun 6, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-04 passage 29 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 225,722 contracts two facts + the gap
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Jun 6, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-04 passage 29 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 225,722 contracts two facts + the gap
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Jun 6, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 28 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 232,812 contracts two facts + the gap
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Jun 6, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 28 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 232,812 contracts two facts + the gap
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Jun 6, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 28 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 232,812 contracts two facts + the gap
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Jun 6, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 28 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 232,812 contracts two facts + the gap
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Jun 6, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 28 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 232,812 contracts two facts + the gap
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Jun 6, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 28 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 232,812 contracts two facts + the gap
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Jun 6, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-05-20 passage 3 above the median (2pp) 49,258 contracts two facts + the gap
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Jun 6, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-05-20 passage 3 above the median (2pp) 49,258 contracts two facts + the gap
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Jun 6, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-05-20 passage 3 above the median (2pp) 49,258 contracts two facts + the gap
Will Rand Paul vote for the next budget reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-04 passage 36 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 1,656 contracts two facts + the gap
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Will Rand Paul vote for the next budget reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-04 passage 36 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 1,656 contracts two facts + the gap
Will Rand Paul vote for the next budget reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-04 passage 36 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 1,656 contracts two facts + the gap
Will Rand Paul vote for the next budget reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-04 passage 36 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 1,656 contracts two facts + the gap
Will Rand Paul vote for the next budget reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-03 passage 10 above the median (2pp) 2,080 contracts two facts + the gap
Will Rand Paul vote for the next budget reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-03 passage 10 above the median (2pp) 2,080 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-09 passage 34 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 53,293 contracts two facts + the gap
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Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-09 passage 34 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 53,293 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-09 passage 34 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 53,293 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-09 passage 34 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 53,293 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-09 passage 34 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 53,293 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-09 passage 34 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 53,293 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-09 passage 34 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 53,293 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-09 passage 34 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 53,293 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-09 passage 34 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 53,293 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-09 passage 34 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 53,293 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-09 passage 34 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 53,293 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-09 passage 34 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 53,293 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-09 passage 34 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 53,293 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-08 passage 28 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 51,551 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-08 passage 28 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 51,551 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-08 passage 28 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 51,551 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-03 passage 20 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 28,760 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-03 passage 20 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 28,760 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 12 above the median (2pp) 38,484 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 12 above the median (2pp) 38,484 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 12 above the median (2pp) 38,484 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 12 above the median (2pp) 38,484 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 12 above the median (2pp) 38,484 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 12 above the median (2pp) 38,484 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-04 passage 12 above the median (2pp) 42,284 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-04 passage 12 above the median (2pp) 42,284 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-04 passage 12 above the median (2pp) 42,284 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-04 passage 12 above the median (2pp) 42,284 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-05-20 passage 3 above the median (2pp) 19,514 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-05-20 passage 3 above the median (2pp) 19,514 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-05-20 passage 3 above the median (2pp) 19,514 contracts two facts + the gap
Will Jay Clayton be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence before Aug 1, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-07-28 confirmation 29 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 11,883 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 25 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 295,136 contracts two facts + the gap
▸ 5 more windows on this market ▾ every window, same market
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 25 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 295,136 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 25 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 295,136 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 25 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 295,136 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 25 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 295,136 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 25 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 295,136 contracts two facts + the gap
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Jun 14, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 24 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 71,476 contracts two facts + the gap
▸ 14 more windows on this market ▾ every window, same market
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Jun 14, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 24 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 71,476 contracts two facts + the gap
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Jun 14, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 24 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 71,476 contracts two facts + the gap
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Jun 14, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 24 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 71,476 contracts two facts + the gap
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Jun 14, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 24 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 71,476 contracts two facts + the gap
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Jun 14, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 24 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 71,476 contracts two facts + the gap
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Jun 14, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-03 passage 20 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 78,370 contracts two facts + the gap
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Jun 14, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-03 passage 20 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 78,370 contracts two facts + the gap
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Jun 14, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-04 passage 12 above the median (2pp) 82,780 contracts two facts + the gap
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Jun 14, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-04 passage 12 above the median (2pp) 82,780 contracts two facts + the gap
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Jun 14, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-04 passage 12 above the median (2pp) 82,780 contracts two facts + the gap
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Jun 14, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-04 passage 12 above the median (2pp) 82,780 contracts two facts + the gap
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Jun 14, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-05-20 passage 2 above the median (2pp) 20,888 contracts two facts + the gap
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Jun 14, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-05-20 passage 2 above the median (2pp) 20,888 contracts two facts + the gap
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Jun 14, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-05-20 passage 2 above the median (2pp) 20,888 contracts two facts + the gap
Will Lisa Murkowski vote for the next budget reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-04 passage 21 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 964 contracts two facts + the gap
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Will Lisa Murkowski vote for the next budget reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-04 passage 21 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 964 contracts two facts + the gap
Will Lisa Murkowski vote for the next budget reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-04 passage 21 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 964 contracts two facts + the gap
Will Lisa Murkowski vote for the next budget reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-04 passage 21 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 964 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-09 passage 18 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 14,631 contracts two facts + the gap
▸ 21 more windows on this market ▾ every window, same market
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-09 passage 18 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 14,631 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-09 passage 18 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 14,631 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-09 passage 18 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 14,631 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-09 passage 18 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 14,631 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-09 passage 18 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 14,631 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-09 passage 18 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 14,631 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-09 passage 18 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 14,631 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-09 passage 18 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 14,631 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-09 passage 18 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 14,631 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-09 passage 18 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 14,631 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-09 passage 18 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 14,631 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-09 passage 18 bigger than 90% (p90 = 16pp) 14,631 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 5 above the median (2pp) 11,654 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 5 above the median (2pp) 11,654 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 5 above the median (2pp) 11,654 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 5 above the median (2pp) 11,654 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 5 above the median (2pp) 11,654 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 5 above the median (2pp) 11,654 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-08 passage 3 above the median (2pp) 15,510 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-08 passage 3 above the median (2pp) 15,510 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-08 passage 3 above the median (2pp) 15,510 contracts two facts + the gap
Will funding for the U.S. Secret Service be in the next reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-04 passage 14 above the median (2pp) 5,341 contracts two facts + the gap
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Will funding for the U.S. Secret Service be in the next reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-04 passage 14 above the median (2pp) 5,341 contracts two facts + the gap
Will funding for the U.S. Secret Service be in the next reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-04 passage 14 above the median (2pp) 5,341 contracts two facts + the gap
Will funding for the U.S. Secret Service be in the next reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-04 passage 14 above the median (2pp) 5,341 contracts two facts + the gap
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Jul 1, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 14 above the median (2pp) 16,925 contracts two facts + the gap
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Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Jul 1, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 14 above the median (2pp) 16,925 contracts two facts + the gap
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Jul 1, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 14 above the median (2pp) 16,925 contracts two facts + the gap
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Jul 1, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 14 above the median (2pp) 16,925 contracts two facts + the gap
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Jul 1, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 14 above the median (2pp) 16,925 contracts two facts + the gap
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Jul 1, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 14 above the median (2pp) 16,925 contracts two facts + the gap
Will Susan Collins vote for the next budget reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-03 passage 14 above the median (2pp) 4,602 contracts two facts + the gap
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Will Susan Collins vote for the next budget reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-03 passage 14 above the median (2pp) 4,602 contracts two facts + the gap
Will Susan Collins vote for the next budget reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-04 passage 9 above the median (2pp) 3,212 contracts two facts + the gap
Will Susan Collins vote for the next budget reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-04 passage 9 above the median (2pp) 3,212 contracts two facts + the gap
Will Susan Collins vote for the next budget reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-04 passage 9 above the median (2pp) 3,212 contracts two facts + the gap
Will Susan Collins vote for the next budget reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-04 passage 9 above the median (2pp) 3,212 contracts two facts + the gap
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-05-20 passage 12 above the median (2pp) 217,532 contracts two facts + the gap
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Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-05-20 passage 12 above the median (2pp) 217,532 contracts two facts + the gap
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-05-20 passage 12 above the median (2pp) 217,532 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-05-20 passage 8 above the median (2pp) 68,881 contracts two facts + the gap
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Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-05-20 passage 8 above the median (2pp) 68,881 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-05-20 passage 8 above the median (2pp) 68,881 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the next reconciliation bill receive above 213 Yea votes in the House? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 7 above the median (2pp) 664 contracts two facts + the gap
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Will the next reconciliation bill receive above 213 Yea votes in the House? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 7 above the median (2pp) 664 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the next reconciliation bill receive above 213 Yea votes in the House? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 7 above the median (2pp) 664 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the next reconciliation bill receive above 213 Yea votes in the House? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 7 above the median (2pp) 664 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the next reconciliation bill receive above 213 Yea votes in the House? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 7 above the median (2pp) 664 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the next reconciliation bill receive above 213 Yea votes in the House? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 7 above the median (2pp) 664 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the next reconciliation bill receive above 213 Yea votes in the House? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-04 passage 6 above the median (2pp) 356 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the next reconciliation bill receive above 213 Yea votes in the House? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-04 passage 6 above the median (2pp) 356 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the next reconciliation bill receive above 213 Yea votes in the House? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-04 passage 6 above the median (2pp) 356 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the next reconciliation bill receive above 213 Yea votes in the House? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-04 passage 6 above the median (2pp) 356 contracts two facts + the gap
Will Trump’s first officially announced pick for Chairman of the Federal Reserve be confirmed as Chairman of the Federal Reserve before May 15, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-05-13 confirmation 6 above the median (2pp) 806,921 contracts two facts + the gap
Will Mandatory funding for ICE or CBP lasting at least 3 years be in the next reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-03 passage 6 above the median (2pp) 1,419 contracts two facts + the gap
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Will Mandatory funding for ICE or CBP lasting at least 3 years be in the next reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-03 passage 6 above the median (2pp) 1,419 contracts two facts + the gap
Will "SAVE Act" (H.R. 22) becomes law before Jan 4, 2027? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2025-04-08 passage 5 above the median (2pp) 4,361 contracts two facts + the gap
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Will "SAVE Act" (H.R. 22) becomes law before Jan 4, 2027? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2025-04-01 passage 3 above the median (2pp) 882 contracts two facts + the gap
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 23, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-05-20 passage 5 above the median (2pp) 70,385 contracts two facts + the gap
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Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 23, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-05-20 passage 5 above the median (2pp) 70,385 contracts two facts + the gap
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 23, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-05-20 passage 5 above the median (2pp) 70,385 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the next reconciliation bill receive above 215 Yea votes in the House? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-04 passage 4 above the median (2pp) 1,512 contracts two facts + the gap
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Will the next reconciliation bill receive above 215 Yea votes in the House? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-04 passage 4 above the median (2pp) 1,512 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the next reconciliation bill receive above 215 Yea votes in the House? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-04 passage 4 above the median (2pp) 1,512 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the next reconciliation bill receive above 215 Yea votes in the House? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-04 passage 4 above the median (2pp) 1,512 contracts two facts + the gap
Will Bill Cassidy vote for the next budget reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-04 passage 4 above the median (2pp) 749 contracts two facts + the gap
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Will Bill Cassidy vote for the next budget reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-04 passage 4 above the median (2pp) 749 contracts two facts + the gap
Will Bill Cassidy vote for the next budget reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-04 passage 4 above the median (2pp) 749 contracts two facts + the gap
Will Bill Cassidy vote for the next budget reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-04 passage 4 above the median (2pp) 749 contracts two facts + the gap
Will John Fetterman vote for the next budget reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 4 above the median (2pp) 738 contracts two facts + the gap
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Will John Fetterman vote for the next budget reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 4 above the median (2pp) 738 contracts two facts + the gap
Will John Fetterman vote for the next budget reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 4 above the median (2pp) 738 contracts two facts + the gap
Will John Fetterman vote for the next budget reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 4 above the median (2pp) 738 contracts two facts + the gap
Will John Fetterman vote for the next budget reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 4 above the median (2pp) 738 contracts two facts + the gap
Will John Fetterman vote for the next budget reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 4 above the median (2pp) 738 contracts two facts + the gap
Will Mitch McConnell vote for the next budget reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-03 passage 3 above the median (2pp) 2,394 contracts two facts + the gap
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Will Mitch McConnell vote for the next budget reconciliation bill? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-03 passage 3 above the median (2pp) 2,394 contracts two facts + the gap
Will Trump’s first officially announced pick for Chairman of the Federal Reserve be confirmed as Chairman of the Federal Reserve before Jun 1, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-05-13 confirmation 3 above the median (2pp) 91,968 contracts two facts + the gap
Will Trump’s first officially announced pick for Chairman of the Federal Reserve be confirmed as Chairman of the Federal Reserve before Jul 1, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-05-13 confirmation 2 above the median (2pp) 15,577 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 2 within ordinary drift 1,922 contracts two facts + the gap
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Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 2 within ordinary drift 1,922 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 2 within ordinary drift 1,922 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 2 within ordinary drift 1,922 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 2 within ordinary drift 1,922 contracts two facts + the gap
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-06-05 passage 2 within ordinary drift 1,922 contracts two facts + the gap
Will Trump’s first officially announced pick for Chairman of the Federal Reserve be confirmed as Chairman of the Federal Reserve before Aug 1, 2026? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-05-13 confirmation 2 within ordinary drift 22,496 contracts two facts + the gap
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2029? Kalshi · CFTC-regulated exchange 2026-05-13 confirmation 1 within ordinary drift 1,485,182 contracts two facts + the gap

peer group has fewer than 50 scored joins, too few to rank honestly; every join is listed, none is percentiled.

The words on this page: a short glossary

point: one cent of price; read it as one percentage point of implied probability.
join: one market paired with one dated official act. A mapping asserted in a data file; an assertion, not a finding.
base rate / placebo window: an ordinary 14-day stretch with no act at its end, measured the same way as the real windows.
relation: which kind of act the market's question refers to, such as passage or confirmation.
refused window: a window missing its first or last daily close gets no score.
frozen archive: a settled market's price history, kept unchanged.

A high rank marks a move to look at, not a verdict. What this page cannot see: who traded, informed vs. lucky, information vs. manipulation · months of history, not decades · adjacency is not causation. Coverage: we collect markets by the venue's own category labels. Markets outside those labels, and anything before about 2024, are missing here, not missing from the world. Machine-readable: /v2/markets/early-money.